Flood and Fire Monitoring and Prediction Within the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone

At the request of the Administration of the Exclusion Zone, under the auspices of the Ukrainian Ministry of Emergency Situations and Chornobyl Affairs, ULRMC is conducting a project aimed at providing information support to administrative decision-makers interested in several key matters. These include flood risk issues, monitoring of forest fires within the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone, and the resulting dispersion of radionuclides.

As part of the project, ULRMC is using GIS and remote sensing techniques to predict and Figure 1. Flood prediction to evaluate the consequences of flood and fire situations. The main problem with predicting flood scenarios in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone stems from the fact that there has never been a precise elevation model that could be used. Furthermore, with all of the changes that have taken place within the zone following the accident in April 1986, including the burial of exposed equipment and the construction of new dams, roads and waterways, any archival elevation models would likely be obsolete for current requirements. Illustrations highlighting such changes can be seen in Figures 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Figure 2

Situation some nine years prior to the Chornobyl accident on April 26, 1986

Situation immediately following the accident

Figure 3
Figure 4

Current situation in the same area

As part of the current project, ULRMC plans to address the elevation model problem and to provide decision makers in Ukraine with up-to-date information.

Interestingly, the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone has generally been considered to be a zone with a Figure 5radius of 30 kilometers. While this was the case immediately following the accident, Figure 5 illustrates the true shape of the current area located on Ukrainian territory. This illustration also highlights those areas within the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone that have the highest recorded levels of contamination.

ULRMC's work in the sphere of the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone is important because regardless of the eventual closure of the nuclear power plant being considered by Ukrainian authorities today, the ecological realities of the exclusion zone will continue to require attention and likely will increase in importance. Accordingly, with the use of satellite imagery and other information technologies, ULRMC will continue to assist the Ukrainian government in characterizing land surface conditions, monitoring environmental changes, planning mitigation efforts, and evaluating land use opportunities in this part of the country.


[ Last updated : 07-May-2003 13:50 ]
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